AI Adoption | Latest quarter
S&P 500 AI Workforce Mentions in Earnings Calls
68% of S&P 500 companies now mention AI in the context of workforce, efficiency, or restructuring on their quarterly earnings calls. This is up from just 8% before ChatGPT launched in late 2022. Companies that discuss AI + workforce on calls subsequently show headcount growth 3.2 percentage points lower than non-mentioners. This is an early signal of what companies are planning: it tells you what executives intend before the layoffs and restructuring actually happen.
Blended estimate across 14 sources ranging 8–68%. Higher-tier evidence and more recent data are weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
Predictions Over Time
The chart below tracks how this estimate has shifted over time as new research and data emerge. Every source is color-coded by evidence quality; use the tiers below to filter what appears on the chart and in the weighted average above.
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Studies with a clear directional finding but no single plottable value — e.g. “entry-level hiring fell” or “no measurable displacement detected.” Stacked blocks show net evidence per month; positive and negative signals cancel. Hover any column to see the studies.
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Sources (19)
a16z: AI-augmentation out-mentions AI-substitution on earnings calls by ~8:1
AI-as-augmentation out-mentions AI-as-substitution on earnings calls by ~8:1. Software Development jobs (both by count, and a percent of the overall job market) have been increasing since the beginning of 2025. The aggregate effects of AI on employment are "basically null" per recent academic research, with some evidence of reallocation between jobs and tasks.
68% (331 out of 485) of S&P 500 earnings calls in Q4 2025 cited AI — a new 10-year high. Financials and IT had highest counts (67 each). IT (94%), Financials (91%), Communication Services (89%) had highest sector percentages.
the share of firms mentioning Generative AI rose substantially from less than 5% before ChatGPT's release to 27% in the first quarter after the release
Fortune: AI-mentioning companies outperformed by 8.2pp
AI was the most-cited topic in S&P 500 earnings calls in 2025. Companies mentioning AI in workforce context outperformed peers by 8.2 percentage points on average.
61% of S&P 500 companies cited AI in Q4 2025 earnings calls, maintaining near-record levels from Q3.
306 S&P 500 earnings calls cited AI in Q3 2025 (then-record), significantly above the 5-year average of 136 and 10-year average of 86. IT (95%) and Communication Services (95%) had highest sector percentages.
Record 306 S&P 500 companies (61%) cited AI in Q3 2025 earnings calls — a new 10-year high, surpassing the prior record of 292. 95% of IT and Communications sectors mentioned AI. AI-citing companies outperformed 13.9% vs. 5.7%.
44% of S&P 500 discussed AI-workforce in Q1 2025, a slight pullback from Q4 2024's record. Discussion maturing: less hype, more specific deployment data.
Record 48% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI in workforce context. Average mentions per call reached 11. 'Restructuring' and 'automation' became top co-occurring terms.
ACM: AI discussion intensity is leading deployment indicator
As we approach Transformative AI, there is urgent need to advance understanding of how it reshapes economic models, institutions, and policies. Proposes nine Grand Challenges including economic growth, income distribution, and transition dynamics.
Goldman: AI-mentioning firms have 3.2pp lower headcount growth
Companies that mention AI + workforce on calls have average headcount growth 3.2pp lower than non-mentioners. The correlation has strengthened each quarter.
44% of S&P 500 discussed AI-workforce. Key new theme: 'AI-native' hiring replacing traditional roles in tech and professional services.
Slight dip to 41% as initial AI hype normalizes. Discussion shifting from aspirational to operational — specific ROI figures cited.
43% mentioned AI-workforce topics. A new record. Companies increasingly cite specific headcount savings from AI deployments.
40% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI in context of workforce strategy. 'Year of Efficiency' framing adopted by 12% of companies.
AI mentions reached 36% of S&P 500 companies. Key themes: 'efficiency gains,' 'headcount optimization,' and 'AI-driven productivity.'
32% of S&P 500 companies now discuss AI on earnings calls. 'AI' mentioned an average of 7 times per call among mentioning companies.
AI mentions in S&P 500 earnings calls more than doubled to 18%. Companies began discussing AI efficiency gains and workforce implications.
Only 8% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI in Q4 2022 calls. Pre-ChatGPT baseline for corporate AI discussion.
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