Job Displacement — By 2030
Education Sector Displacement by 2030
12.6% of education support roles face displacement from AI. This includes tutoring, grading, content creation, and administration — but notably not core teaching, which remains among the least automatable occupations. The collapse of companies like Chegg (subscribers down 50% due to ChatGPT) signals how quickly AI can disrupt adjacent education services even while classroom teaching persists.
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Additional context
Sources (15)
McKinsey estimates 12 million US workers will need to transition occupations by 2030, with education support staff among the affected groups requiring reskilling.
Around 40% of global employment is exposed to AI; in advanced economies 60%. Demand for new skills is rising with 10% of jobs in advanced economies requiring at least one new skill.
Education support roles face moderate displacement risk while core teaching remains protected. Administrative and content creation roles most affected by AI adoption.
Teacher aide and educational support employment projected to decline 3%. Post-secondary teacher demand flat. Private tutoring category declining.
Pearson fully retired its Smarthinking human tutoring service, replacing it with AI-powered chatbot tutors. Marks complete displacement of a human tutoring workforce by AI in a major education company.
Content creation, assessment grading, and student support roles are the most affected. Core teaching remains largely protected.
Pearson pivoted to AI-first content delivery, reducing editorial headcount by 18% while growing AI-generated adaptive learning content 300%.
Chegg eliminated 636 employees across two rounds of layoffs (23% in 2024, then additional cuts in early 2025), totaling ~67% of peak workforce. CEO explicitly cited AI as existential threat to homework-help business model.
Teaching roles are among the least automatable (15% task exposure), but education support staff, administration, and tutoring face 30-40% task displacement.
Duolingo cut 10%+ of its contractor workforce, explicitly replacing human content creators with AI-generated language exercises. CEO announced 'AI-first' strategy for all content production.
Chegg subscribers fell 50% from peak as students shifted to ChatGPT. Company laid off 23% of workforce, citing AI as primary competitive threat.
AI tutoring achieves 98% of human tutor effectiveness for math and science. Private tutoring market projected to contract 25% by 2028.
AI grading tools can assess 80% of student work types. Administrative roles in K-12 face 15-20% reduction from automation.
AI tutoring systems can handle 60% of routine student queries. Teaching assistants and tutors face the most immediate displacement risk.