Wage Impact — By 2030
Entry-Level Wage Impact from AI by 2030
Real wages for entry-level positions (0-2 years experience) across knowledge-work industries are projected to decline 8.6% by 2030. Entry-level workers are disproportionately affected because 35% of junior-role tasks are within current AI capability vs. 18% for senior roles. The traditional career ladder — where you learn by doing routine work — is being compressed as AI handles those learning-stage tasks.
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Additional context
Sources (19)
Pressure concentrated in entry-level segments of highly exposed occupations; adjustment happening at the margin through task reallocation.
Emerging evidence that generative AI adoption is reducing entry-level hiring, especially where tasks are automatable rather than complementary to humans.
Unemployment risk in AI-exposed occupations rose beginning early 2022; graduates with AI-exposed curricula have higher first-job pay and shorter job searches post-ChatGPT.
Employment share of young workers (20-24) in most AI-exposed occupations fell from 16.4% to 15.5%; decline driven by fewer people transitioning into employment, not layoffs.
35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025; adoption concentrated among younger, college-educated workers. Small positive wage effects overall.
27% of entry-level writing, data analysis, and administrative roles have declined since 2023. Employers increasingly automate junior tasks previously used for training.
Entry-level positions hit hardest: postings requiring no advanced degree fell 18%, and those requiring no extensive experience fell 20%, relative to less-substitutable roles.
Novice workers benefit more from LLMs in simple tasks but face declining demand across AI-complementary work; digital trace data show substitution in writing and translation.
Analysis of 62M U.S. resumes: junior employment declined sharply at AI-adopting firms while senior employment was largely unchanged — described as 'seniority-biased technological change.'
ADP payroll data shows 13% relative decline in employment for ages 22-25 in most AI-exposed occupations. Effects concentrated in automation roles, not augmentation.
Real median weekly earnings for workers aged 16-24 in professional services fell 5.2% from 2023 to 2025.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that up to 50% of entry-level office jobs could be substantially impacted by AI within the next 2-3 years.
Youth (18-24) employment in OECD countries in AI-exposed sectors declined 4.5% YoY. Real starting salaries fell 3-8% across knowledge-work sectors.
AI reduces the return to experience for routine cognitive tasks. Entry-level workers in finance, admin, and customer service face 6-12% real wage pressure.
Employers increasingly require AI skills for entry-level roles while offering lower starting salaries for traditional positions.
Entry-level positions face the highest displacement risk per dollar of compensation. Estimated 5-10% real wage decline for new graduates by 2028.
Entry-level tasks are disproportionately automatable — 35% of junior role tasks vs. 18% of senior role tasks are within current AI capability.
Entry-level job postings in AI-exposed fields declined 12% YoY. Starting salaries for junior analysts, associates, and coordinators showed early downward pressure.