Wage Impact | By 2028 | Data through Oct 2025
Freelancer/Gig Worker Rate Impact by 2028
Weighted average across 8 sources. Observed so far: ~-15.7% (4 measurements from Yale Budget Lab, Brookings, Dallas Fed, BLS). Projections range -32–-5% (median ~-16.5%).
Average freelancer hourly rates in AI-exposed categories have dropped 18.9% since ChatGPT launched. Writing, translation, graphic design, and data work are hardest hit. This is an important leading indicator because freelancers feel labor market shifts 12-18 months before salaried workers. They lack the institutional buffer of employment contracts and are directly exposed to market pricing.
Blended estimate across 8 sources ranging -32–-5%. Higher-tier evidence and more recent data are weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
Observed Data & Projections
This prediction has two fundamentally different types of evidence: observed employment data (what has actually happened) and forward-looking projections (what researchers estimate will happen). They are shown separately below because they answer different questions.
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What has happened
Measured employment data from government statistics, large-scale surveys, and administrative records. This is ground truth: what has actually occurred in the labor market.
Directional research signals
Studies with a clear directional finding but no single plottable value — e.g. “entry-level hiring fell” or “no measurable displacement detected.” Stacked blocks show net evidence per month; positive and negative signals cancel. Hover any column to see the studies.
Each dot is a different measurement source. Click any dot to jump to its source below.
What researchers project
Forward-looking estimates from structural models, institutional surveys, and expert forecasts. All projections target by 2028, shown by the reference line. The wide range (-32–-5%) reflects different model assumptions about reinstatement effects, demand elasticity, and adoption speed, not just parameter uncertainty.
Directional research signals
Studies with a clear directional finding but no single plottable value — e.g. “entry-level hiring fell” or “no measurable displacement detected.” Stacked blocks show net evidence per month; positive and negative signals cancel. Hover any column to see the studies.
Each dot is a different projection source. The x-axis shows when the projection was published. Click any dot to jump to its source.
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Sources (21)
UCLA (Siddiq/Zhang): Upwork demand shifts 7.9% toward lower-priced workers
Difference-in-differences study on 49,610 Upwork workers and 2.26M contracts (2021Q1–2026Q1) around the release of ChatGPT. Uses text embeddings of worker profiles and Shapley values to quantify the predictive importance of human capital signals (self-presentation, credentials, reputation) and price. In max AI-exposed categories vs. unexposed, contract volume fell ~7.0% post-ChatGPT (9.6% late period, 2025Q2–2026Q1); the combined importance of human capital signals fell 7.8% (10.1% late) while price importance rose 1.1% (1.8% late). Demand premium for high-human-capital workers compressed by 6.2% (10.3% late), and demand reallocated toward lower-priced workers by 3.2% (7.9% late). Authors interpret as empirical evidence of AI-driven labor commoditization — clients view differently-skilled workers as more substitutable when AI compresses output quality.
Wolfe & Dangol: AI labs frame experts as interchangeable, pressuring freelancer rates
Analysis of public communications from five major AI labs finds a consistent narrative framing domain experts as interchangeable data suppliers rather than irreplaceable professionals. The reframing creates a cheap-expertise gig economy with downward pressure on credentialed knowledge-worker wage premiums and freelancer rates.
Fiverr Q1 2026: Active buyers -17.8%; marketplace rev -13.6%; $1K+ projects +18%
Q1 2026 revenue of $105.5 million, down 1.6% year-over-year. Marketplace revenue fell 13.6% to $67.1 million, while Services revenue jumped 30% to $38.4 million. Annual active buyers slipped to 2.9 million as of March 31, down 17.8 percent from 3.5 million a year earlier, but spend per buyer rose 15.4 percent to $356. Projects priced over $1,000 grew at a strong double-digit clip, and clients completing those engagements were up 18 percent year over year. The pivot is partly a response to a flood of low-quality AI output eroding marketplace trust.
FRI: Moderate scenario → almost all 5-day freelance SW jobs automatable by 2030
In the moderate AI scenario, almost all freelance software-engineering jobs requiring 5 days of effort from an experienced human are automatable by 2030. In the rapid scenario, AI surpasses all freelance software engineers.
INSEAD/HBS RCT: startups in-house work previously outsourced
In just a few hours I was able to produce what previously cost $1,000 from an outsourced dev team ... We realized we will need even fewer staff than we initially thought, because AI allows us to do in house what we assumed required outsourcing.
Fiverr FY2025: Active buyers -13.6%; writing/translation categories -20%; 2026 guidance: revenue -3% to -12%
Full-year 2025 revenue of $430.9M, up 10.1% YoY. Active buyers down 13.6% in 2025. Spend per buyer reached $342, rising 13% YoY. Writing, translation, and simple programming categories declining ~20% due to AI substitution. High-value projects over $1,000 grew 23%. 2026 revenue guidance: $380M-$420M, a decline of 3-12% YoY.
Upwork FY2025: GSV per client +7% YoY; AI skills +109%; revenue +2% to $787.8M
Revenue grew 2% year over year to $787.8 million for full year 2025. GSV per active client was $5,129 in Q4 2025, an increase of 7% year over year. AI-related skills grew by 109% year over year. Active clients were 785,000 as of December 31, 2025.
Upwork: AI-applied freelance skills +109% YoY; video gen +329%
Top skills explicitly tied to applying AI within existing roles grew 109% year over year. AI video generation and editing +329%, AI integration +178%, AI data annotation and labeling +154%, AI image generation and editing +95%, AI chatbot development +71%. The most sought-after skills including full stack development, general virtual assistance, data analytics, and graphic design have remained consistently strong year over year. Nearly half of business leaders say they would pay a premium to work with independent talent who are creative and innovative. Analysis of completed-job freelancer earnings Jan 1-Dec 31, 2025.
Galdin & Silbert: employer WTP for freelancer signals fell 42% post-LLM; 1.5% hiring decline
LLMs disrupted labor market signaling on Freelancer.com coding jobs (2.7M applications, 61K posts). Employer WTP for 1 SD signal increase fell from $25.67 to $14.85 (42% decline). Counterfactual no-signaling equilibrium shows 5% avg wage decline, 1.5% hiring reduction, 4% worker surplus loss.
CAIS/Scale AI: Best AI agent captures only $1,720 of $143,991 freelance value (1.2%)
Best AI agent (Manus) earned $1,720 out of a possible $143,991 across 240 real freelance projects — capturing only 1.2% of economic value. Automation rate: 2.5%.
Ramp: freelance spend fell 0.66% → 0.14% of total
Business spend on freelance marketplaces fell from 0.66% to 0.14% of total spend. Writer earnings on these platforms dropped ~31% (based on marketplace spending data; other studies find 5-33% declines depending on metric). Over half of businesses stopped using freelancers for AI-automatable tasks.
ILO review: substitution already occurring in writing & translation
Digital trace data show substitution already occurring in writing and translation tasks; declining demand for novice workers across AI-complementary freelance work.
Brookings: high-skill freelancers hit hardest
High-skill freelancers disproportionately affected by AI — top performers were impacted most, contradicting conventional wisdom that expertise insulates workers.
Platform workers in writing, translation, and data labeling report median earnings declines of 15-25% since 2023.
Demand for substitutable skills (writing, translation) decreased 20-50% relative to counterfactual after ChatGPT launch. Short-term (1-3 week) jobs saw sharpest decline. ML programming demand grew 24%; AI chatbot development nearly tripled. Novice worker demand declined across complementary skill clusters.
PNAS: ChatGPT halved working times in ~1/3 of tasks
Workers see ChatGPT halving working times in about a third of tasks, but employer restrictions and required training hinder adoption.
Imperial College: high-skill freelancers hit hardest; top performers saw largest setbacks
Generative AI is upending freelance work. High-skill freelancers were disproportionately impacted, with top performers seeing the largest setbacks in both contracts and earnings.
Gross services volume in writing declined 33% YoY. Translation down 40%. Company pivoting to AI-augmented freelancer model.
ChatGPT's launch caused a 21% decline in freelance writing job postings and a 15% drop in average hourly rates within 6 months.
Average order value for writing gigs declined 20%. AI-assisted gig categories (AI art, prompt writing) grew 4x but at lower price points.
Writing freelancers reported 15% fewer job postings; early signs of rate compression in translation and content categories.
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