Generative AI Adoption

35.7%▲

35.7% of U.S. working-age adults (18–64) now use generative AI at work, according to the St. Louis Fed / Harvard Real-Time Population Survey — a nationally representative quarterly survey of 25,000+ adults. Overall adoption (55.9%) has outpaced both the PC and internet at comparable points post-launch. The gap between overall and work adoption is consistent with workers adopting ahead of their employers. The Nov 2024 dip in work adoption (31.0%) is real survey data, not a data error — it recovered by Feb 2025. This data updates quarterly (roughly Feb, May, Aug, Nov).

This number is a weighted average across all selected sources, with higher-tier evidence and more recent data weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.

Best estimate from St. Louis Fed (Bick, Blandin & Deming) (Verified Data & Research)

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Verified Data & Research

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) / Peer-reviewed journal articles (AER, QJE, NBER) / Government statistical data (BLS, Census, OECD)

Institutional Analysis

Think tank reports (Brookings, RAND, McKinsey Global Institute) / International org forecasts (IMF, World Bank, ILO) / Prediction markets (Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi)

Journalism & Commentary

Major news outlets (NYT, WSJ, FT, Reuters) / Trade publications (TechCrunch, The Information) / Long-form analysis & investigations

Informal & Social

Twitter/X threads and posts / Reddit discussions / Blog posts and Substack newsletters

How This Prediction Has Evolved

Two trend lines from the same quarterly survey: overall generative AI use and use at work. Hollow dots indicate values estimated from the tracker chart.

Overall adoptionAt workEstimatedConfirmed

Feb & May 2025 values estimated from tracker chart; all other values from published working paper.

St. Louis Fed / Harvard RPS · Updated quarterly · GenAIAdoptionTracker.com

Sources (2)

GenAI Adoption Tracker (Harvard / St. Louis Fed)

Harvard / St. Louis Fed RPSNov 1, 2025Institutional

Quarterly dashboard tracking generative AI adoption among U.S. working-age adults. Feb & May 2025 values estimated from tracker chart; all other values from published working paper.

The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

St. Louis Fed (Bick, Blandin & Deming)Oct 1, 2025Research

Nationally representative survey of 25,000+ working-age adults finds generative AI adoption reached 55.9% overall and 40.7% at work by November 2025, outpacing PC and internet adoption at comparable points post-launch.