Job Displacement — By 2030
Overall US Job Displacement by 2030
This means roughly 2.8% of all US jobs are projected to be eliminated or fundamentally restructured by AI and automation by 2030. "Net displacement" accounts for both jobs lost and the fact that some affected roles are restructured rather than fully eliminated. For context, 1% of the US labor force is about 1.69 million workers.
This number is a weighted average across all selected sources, with higher-tier evidence and more recent data weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
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Additional context
Sources (30)
Survey of ~6,000 executives across US, UK, Germany, Australia. 90%+ report no employment impact from AI over the past 3 years. Firms expect AI to reduce employment by 0.7% over the next 3 years (US: -1.2%). Employees, by contrast, expect +0.5% job creation.
No measurable change in job openings or aggregate employment in AI-exposed occupations; adjustment happening through task reallocation, not broad displacement.
49% of jobs now use AI for at least 25% of their tasks (up from 36% in early 2025); augmentation (52%) has overtaken automation (45%) as primary use pattern.
Unemployment risk in AI-exposed occupations rose beginning early 2022; graduates with AI-exposed curricula have higher first-job pay and shorter job searches post-ChatGPT.
If fully translated to unemployment, AI-driven employment declines among young workers would explain only 0.1 percentage point rise in aggregate unemployment.
35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025; small positive wage effects, no significant decline in job openings.
40% of employers globally expect to reduce headcount as AI automates tasks. Net displacement estimates range from 5-14% of current roles by 2030.
Job postings for high-AI-substitution occupations fell 12% relative to low-substitution roles post-ChatGPT; effect grew from 6% in year one to 18% by year three. Based on 285 million Lightcast job postings.
Study of 11 occupations in Denmark: essentially zero effects on earnings and hours worked; confidence intervals rule out effects larger than 2%. AI adoption linked to ~4% occupational switching.
Analysis finds no significant macro-level job displacement from AI as of late 2025, though structural shifts are emerging in specific sectors.
Despite fears of imminent AI jobs apocalypse, the overall labor market shows more continuity than disruption since ChatGPT's launch.
Productivity gains 20-60% in controlled RCTs, 15-30% in field experiments; AI exposure measures converge toward high-wage jobs being most exposed.
In jobs with high AI exposure, employment for 22- to 25-year-olds fell 6% between late 2022 and July 2025. Software developers saw a 20% early-career decline. Employment among workers 30 and older grew 6-13%.
2.5% of US employment at risk of displacement from current AI use cases; unemployment projected to increase by 0.5pp during transition.
There is no economically or statistically significant correlation between AI exposure and job growth, unemployment, job finding rates, layoff rates, weekly hours, or average hourly earnings.
Framework for guiding innovation to increase labor demand; steering technology becomes more desirable the less efficient social safety nets are.
IBM CEO stated plans to replace ~7,800 back-office roles with AI. Company investing in reskilling remaining workforce for AI-augmented roles.
Amazon reported 75% increase in robotic and AI systems in fulfillment centers. Warehouse associate hiring slowed while 'AI specialist' roles grew 3x.
Workers in AI-exposed occupations face significantly higher unemployment risk.
Total US job postings are 15% below their February 2022 peak. Categories most exposed to AI (data entry, basic admin, customer service) show steepest declines.
17% decrease in job postings for highly automatable occupations, but 22% increase for augmentation-prone ones — net effect depends on occupation mix.
AI and automation could account for 6% of total US job losses by 2030, equating to 10.4 million roles. Widespread AI-driven job replacement remains unlikely. AI will augment 20% of jobs rather than eliminate them.
AI may increase TFP by only 0.53-0.66% over 10 years, with limited job displacement effects.
Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies more affected.
27% of jobs are in occupations at high risk of automation across OECD countries.
Roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation; generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work.