Job Displacement — By 2030
Total US Jobs Lost to AI as % of Labor Force
Of the approximately 168.5 million people in the US civilian labor force, about 4 million are projected to lose their jobs outright due to AI. This differs from "displacement" in that it counts only roles fully eliminated, not those that are transformed. This figure is net of new jobs created by AI adoption.
This number is a weighted average across all selected sources, with higher-tier evidence and more recent data weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
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Sources (19)
Employers cited AI as a direct cause for 55,000 job cuts in 2025, concentrated in customer service, data entry, and back-office operations.
Survey of 2,500 C-suite executives finds 90% report no significant net employment impact from AI adoption as of Q3 2025, though task reallocation is widespread.
No economy-wide employment disruption tied to AI since ChatGPT's debut. Measures of AI exposure show no clear relationship with changes in employment or unemployment.
More than half of businesses using freelancers in 2022 have stopped entirely; freelance marketplace spend fell from 0.66% to 0.14% of total business spend.
Roughly 10% of US work affected in the short run; AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035. Jobs that AI can completely replace saw 0.75% employment fall 2021-2024.
BLS projects moderate net displacement with significant variation across occupational groups.
2.5% of US employment at risk of displacement from current AI use cases; 60% of current US workers in occupations that didn't exist in 1940.
AI could displace 6-7% of the US workforce if widely adopted. We remain skeptical that AI will lead to large employment reductions over the next decade.
Analysis of 2024 10-K filings: 47 S&P 500 companies disclosed AI-driven workforce restructuring. Cumulative disclosed headcount reductions: ~185,000 positions.
Workers in AI-exposed occupations face significantly higher unemployment risk, suggesting aggregate job losses may exceed earlier estimates.
Data entry (-27%), customer service (-18%), and basic admin (-22%) postings saw steepest declines. AI/ML postings +42% YoY.
Forrester estimates 6% of US jobs will be lost to AI and automation by 2030, partially offset by new job creation.
Half of workers in exposed occupations have used ChatGPT; younger, male, higher-achieving workers lead adoption. Women 16pp less likely to use for work.
Employers expect 23% of jobs to change in the next five years, with a net decline of 2-4% of total roles once job creation offsets displacement.
AI may increase TFP by only 0.53-0.66% over 10 years; limited net job losses of ~2% as many affected tasks are only partially automated.
Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI; in advanced economies, roughly 60% of workers face some degree of AI impact.
27% of jobs are in occupations at high risk, but actual displacement depends on adoption speed and policy response.
300 million full-time jobs globally could be exposed to automation; translates to roughly 3-5% net US job losses after accounting for new job creation.