AI Adoption — Current estimate
US Workforce AI Exposure
An estimated 42.7% of US jobs have significant task overlap with current AI capabilities. This is an exposure measure, not a displacement count — it describes what AI could theoretically do, not what has happened. The gap between exposure and actual displacement has been wide: while exposure estimates have risen from 25% to nearly 50%, observed macro job losses attributable to AI remain near zero. Exposure is a precondition for displacement, not a guarantee of it.
This number is a weighted average across all selected sources, with higher-tier evidence and more recent data weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
Most AI-and-jobs claims come from journalism or social media. Toggle to to see what the rigorous evidence actually says.
Filter by evidence quality
How This Prediction Has Evolved
Each data point is from a different source. Dots are color-coded by evidence tier. Click any dot to jump to its source.
Colored overlay bars represent relevant studies or data points that provide directional (but not exact) guidance. Click a bar to see its source.
Additional context
Sources (9)
49% of jobs now use AI for at least 25% of their tasks (up from 36% in early 2025); augmentation (52%) has overtaken automation (45%) as primary use pattern.
LLM adoption among U.S. workers increased from 30.1% to 38.3% between December 2024 and December 2025. Small effects on wages in exposed occupations; no significant effects on job openings or total jobs.
Productivity gains 20-60% in controlled RCTs, 15-30% in field experiments; AI exposure measures converge toward high-wage jobs being most exposed.
In about 40% of employment in exposed occupations, at least 50% of tasks will be replaceable by AI within 10 years.
Workers in AI-exposed occupations face significantly higher unemployment risk.
~80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected by GPTs; ~19% of workers may see at least 50% of tasks impacted.
Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies more affected.
27% of jobs are in occupations at high risk of automation across OECD countries.
Roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation; generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work.